Fun with (Extended Kalman) Filters

Summary

An extended Kalman filter in Haskell using type level literals and automatic differentiation to provide some guarantees of correctness.

Population Growth

Suppose we wish to model population growth of bees via the logistic equation

\displaystyle  \begin{aligned}  \dot{p} & = rp\Big(1 - \frac{p}{k}\Big)  \end{aligned}

We assume the growth rate r is unknown and drawn from a normal distribution {\cal{N}}(\mu_r, \sigma_r^2) but the carrying capacity k is known and we wish to estimate the growth rate by observing noisy values y_i of the population at discrete times t_0 = 0, t_1 = \Delta T, t_2 = 2\Delta T, \ldots. Note that p_t is entirely deterministic and its stochasticity is only as a result of the fact that the unknown parameter of the logistic equation is sampled from a normal distribution (we could for example be observing different colonies of bees and we know from the literature that bee populations obey the logistic equation and each colony will have different growth rates).

Haskell Preamble

> {-# OPTIONS_GHC -Wall                     #-}
> {-# OPTIONS_GHC -fno-warn-name-shadowing  #-}
> {-# OPTIONS_GHC -fno-warn-type-defaults   #-}
> {-# OPTIONS_GHC -fno-warn-unused-do-bind  #-}
> {-# OPTIONS_GHC -fno-warn-missing-methods #-}
> {-# OPTIONS_GHC -fno-warn-orphans         #-}
> {-# LANGUAGE DataKinds                    #-}
> {-# LANGUAGE ScopedTypeVariables          #-}
> {-# LANGUAGE RankNTypes                   #-}
> {-# LANGUAGE BangPatterns                 #-}
> {-# LANGUAGE TypeOperators                #-}
> {-# LANGUAGE TypeFamilies                 #-}
> module FunWithKalman3 where
> import GHC.TypeLits
> import Numeric.LinearAlgebra.Static
> import Data.Maybe ( fromJust )
> import Numeric.AD
> import Data.Random.Source.PureMT
> import Data.Random
> import Control.Monad.State
> import qualified Control.Monad.Writer as W
> import Control.Monad.Loops

Logistic Equation

The logistic equation is a well known example of a dynamical system which has an analytic solution

\displaystyle  p = \frac{kp_0\exp rt}{k + p_0(\exp rt - 1)}

Here it is in Haskell

> logit :: Floating a => a -> a -> a -> a
> logit p0 k x = k * p0 * (exp x) / (k + p0 * (exp x - 1))

We observe a noisy value of population at regular time intervals (where \Delta T is the time interval)

\displaystyle  \begin{aligned}  p_i &= \frac{kp_0\exp r\Delta T i}{k + p_0(\exp r\Delta T i - 1)} \\  y_i &= p_i + \epsilon_i  \end{aligned}

Using the semi-group property of our dynamical system, we can re-write this as

\displaystyle  \begin{aligned}  p_i &= \frac{kp_{i-1}\exp r\Delta T}{k + p_{i-1}(\exp r\Delta T - 1)} \\  y_i &= p_i + \epsilon_i  \end{aligned}

To convince yourself that this re-formulation is correct, think of the population as starting at p_0; after 1 time step it has reached p_1 and and after two time steps it has reached p_2 and this ought to be the same as the point reached after 1 time step starting at p_1, for example

> oneStepFrom0, twoStepsFrom0, oneStepFrom1 :: Double
> oneStepFrom0  = logit 0.1 1.0 (1 * 0.1)
> twoStepsFrom0 = logit 0.1 1.0 (1 * 0.2)
> oneStepFrom1  = logit oneStepFrom0 1.0 (1 * 0.1)
ghci> twoStepsFrom0
  0.11949463171139338

ghci> oneStepFrom1
  0.1194946317113934

We would like to infer the growth rate not just be able to predict the population so we need to add another variable to our model.

\displaystyle  \begin{aligned}  r_i &= r_{i-1} \\  p_i &= \frac{kp_{i-1}\exp r_{i-1}\Delta T}{k + p_{i-1}(\exp r_{i-1}\Delta T - 1)} \\  y_i &= \begin{bmatrix}0 & 1\end{bmatrix}\begin{bmatrix}r_i \\ p_i\end{bmatrix} + \begin{bmatrix}0 \\ \epsilon_i\end{bmatrix}  \end{aligned}

Extended Kalman

This is almost in the form suitable for estimation using a Kalman filter but the dependency of the state on the previous state is non-linear. We can modify the Kalman filter to create the extended Kalman filter (EKF) by making a linear approximation.

Since the measurement update is trivially linear (even in this more general form), the measurement update step remains unchanged.

\displaystyle  \begin{aligned}  \boldsymbol{v}_i & \triangleq  \boldsymbol{y}_i - \boldsymbol{g}(\hat{\boldsymbol{x}}^\flat_i) \\  \boldsymbol{S}_i & \triangleq  \boldsymbol{G}_i \hat{\boldsymbol{\Sigma}}^\flat_i  \boldsymbol{G}_i^\top + \boldsymbol{\Sigma}^{(y)}_i \\  \boldsymbol{K}_i & \triangleq \hat{\boldsymbol{\Sigma}}^\flat_i  \boldsymbol{G}_i^\top\boldsymbol{S}^{-1}_i \\  \hat{\boldsymbol{x}}^i &\triangleq \hat{\boldsymbol{x}}^\flat_i + \boldsymbol{K}_i\boldsymbol{v}_i \\  \hat{\boldsymbol{\Sigma}}_i &\triangleq \hat{\boldsymbol{\Sigma}}^\flat_i - \boldsymbol{K}_i\boldsymbol{S}_i\boldsymbol{K}^\top_i  \end{aligned}

By Taylor we have

\displaystyle  \boldsymbol{a}(\boldsymbol{x}) \approx \boldsymbol{a}(\boldsymbol{m}) + \boldsymbol{A}_{\boldsymbol{x}}(\boldsymbol{m})\delta\boldsymbol{x}

where \boldsymbol{A}_{\boldsymbol{x}}(\boldsymbol{m}) is the Jacobian of \boldsymbol{a} evaluated at \boldsymbol{m} (for the exposition of the extended filter we take \boldsymbol{a} to be vector valued hence the use of a bold font). We take \delta\boldsymbol{x} to be normally distributed with mean of 0 and ignore any difficulties there may be with using Taylor with stochastic variables.

Applying this at \boldsymbol{m} = \hat{\boldsymbol{x}}_{i-1} we have

\displaystyle  \boldsymbol{x}_i = \boldsymbol{a}(\hat{\boldsymbol{x}}_{i-1}) + \boldsymbol{A}_{\boldsymbol{x}}(\hat{\boldsymbol{x}}_{i-1})(\boldsymbol{x}_{i-1} - \hat{\boldsymbol{x}}_{i-1}) + \boldsymbol{\epsilon}_i

Using the same reasoning as we did as for Kalman filters and writing \boldsymbol{A}_{i-1} for \boldsymbol{A}_{\boldsymbol{x}}(\hat{\boldsymbol{x}}_{i-1}) we obtain

\displaystyle  \begin{aligned}  \hat{\boldsymbol{x}}^\flat_i &=  \boldsymbol{a}(\hat{\boldsymbol{x}}_{i-1}) \\  \hat{\boldsymbol{\Sigma}}^\flat_i &= \boldsymbol{A}_{i-1}  \hat{\boldsymbol{\Sigma}}_{i-1}  \boldsymbol{A}_{i-1}^\top  + \boldsymbol{\Sigma}^{(x)}_{i-1}  \end{aligned}

Haskell Implementation

Note that we pass in the Jacobian of the update function as a function itself in the case of the extended Kalman filter rather than the matrix representing the linear function as we do in the case of the classical Kalman filter.

> k, p0 :: Floating a => a
> k = 1.0
> p0 = 0.1 * k
> r, deltaT :: Floating a => a
> r = 10.0
> deltaT = 0.0005

Relating ad and hmatrix is somewhat unpleasant but this can probably be ameliorated by defining a suitable datatype.

> a :: R 2 -> R 2
> a rpPrev = rNew # pNew
>   where
>     (r, pPrev) = headTail rpPrev
>     rNew :: R 1
>     rNew = konst r
> 
>     (p,  _) = headTail pPrev
>     pNew :: R 1
>     pNew = fromList $ [logit p k (r * deltaT)]
> bigA :: R 2 -> Sq 2
> bigA rp = fromList $ concat $ j [r, p]
>   where
>     (r, ps) = headTail rp
>     (p,  _) = headTail ps
>     j = jacobian (\[r, p] -> [r, logit p k (r * deltaT)])

For some reason, hmatrix with static guarantees does not yet provide an inverse function for matrices.

> inv :: (KnownNat n, (1 <=? n) ~ 'True) => Sq n -> Sq n
> inv m = fromJust $ linSolve m eye

Here is the extended Kalman filter itself. The type signatures on the expressions inside the function are not necessary but did help the implementor discover a bug in the mathematical derivation and will hopefully help the reader.

> outer ::  forall m n . (KnownNat m, KnownNat n,
>                         (1 <=? n) ~ 'True, (1 <=? m) ~ 'True) =>
>           R n -> Sq n ->
>           L m n -> Sq m ->
>           (R n -> R n) -> (R n -> Sq n) -> Sq n ->
>           [R m] ->
>           [(R n, Sq n)]
> outer muPrior sigmaPrior bigH bigSigmaY
>       littleA bigABuilder bigSigmaX ys = result
>   where
>     result = scanl update (muPrior, sigmaPrior) ys
> 
>     update :: (R n, Sq n) -> R m -> (R n, Sq n)
>     update (xHatFlat, bigSigmaHatFlat) y =
>       (xHatFlatNew, bigSigmaHatFlatNew)
>       where
> 
>         v :: R m
>         v = y - (bigH #> xHatFlat)
> 
>         bigS :: Sq m
>         bigS = bigH <> bigSigmaHatFlat <> (tr bigH) + bigSigmaY
> 
>         bigK :: L n m
>         bigK = bigSigmaHatFlat <> (tr bigH) <> (inv bigS)
> 
>         xHat :: R n
>         xHat = xHatFlat + bigK #> v
> 
>         bigSigmaHat :: Sq n
>         bigSigmaHat = bigSigmaHatFlat - bigK <> bigS <> (tr bigK)
> 
>         bigA :: Sq n
>         bigA = bigABuilder xHat
> 
>         xHatFlatNew :: R n
>         xHatFlatNew = littleA xHat
> 
>         bigSigmaHatFlatNew :: Sq n
>         bigSigmaHatFlatNew = bigA <> bigSigmaHat <> (tr bigA) + bigSigmaX

Now let us create some sample data.

> obsVariance :: Double
> obsVariance = 1e-2
> bigSigmaY :: Sq 1
> bigSigmaY = fromList [obsVariance]
> nObs :: Int
> nObs = 300
> singleSample :: Double -> RVarT (W.Writer [Double]) Double
> singleSample p0 = do
>   epsilon <- rvarT (Normal 0.0 obsVariance)
>   let p1 = logit p0 k (r * deltaT)
>   lift $ W.tell [p1 + epsilon]
>   return p1
> streamSample :: RVarT (W.Writer [Double]) Double
> streamSample = iterateM_ singleSample p0
> samples :: [Double]
> samples = take nObs $ snd $
>           W.runWriter (evalStateT (sample streamSample) (pureMT 3))

We created our data with a growth rate of

ghci> r
  10.0

but let us pretend that we have read the literature on growth rates of bee colonies and we have some big doubts about growth rates but we are almost certain about the size of the colony at t=0.

> muPrior :: R 2
> muPrior = fromList [5.0, 0.1]
> 
> sigmaPrior :: Sq 2
> sigmaPrior = fromList [ 1e2, 0.0
>                       , 0.0, 1e-10
>                       ]

We only observe the population and not the rate itself.

> bigH :: L 1 2
> bigH = fromList [0.0, 1.0]

Strictly speaking this should be 0 but this is close enough.

> bigSigmaX :: Sq 2
> bigSigmaX = fromList [ 1e-10, 0.0
>                      , 0.0, 1e-10
>                      ]

Now we can run our filter and watch it switch away from our prior belief as it accumulates more and more evidence.

> test :: [(R 2, Sq 2)]
> test = outer muPrior sigmaPrior bigH bigSigmaY
>        a bigA bigSigmaX (map (fromList . return) samples)

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One thought on “Fun with (Extended Kalman) Filters

  1. Pingback: Population Growth Estimation via Markov Chain Monte Carlo | Idontgetoutmuch's Weblog

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